Why do insurgencies persist, even in relatively strong states with significant counterinsurgency investments? This book project argues that the answer lies not just in state capacity or civilian loyalty, but in the political behavior of local powerbrokers. In many conflict zones, municipal- and district-level actors—elected officials, clan leaders, or informal notables—control how state authority is implemented on the ground. These actors can serve as critical intermediaries in counterinsurgency, or as quiet enablers of insurgents. Drawing on original data from the Philippines and comparative evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, and beyond, Dr Dotan Haim shows how their decisions are shaped by the structure of their political networks, including access to state patronage, rivalry with local competitors, and contagion through peer ties. When the state strengthens their rivals or fails to guarantee safety, these actors often strike informal deals with insurgents, trading political leverage for non-interference, coordination on rent extraction, and local legitimacy. The book combines quantitative analysis of conflict dynamics in the Philippines—including detailed military intelligence on rebel activity and fine-grained data on patronage, rivalry, and clan networks—with qualitative evidence from elite interviews and process tracing. In doing so, it reframes the microfoundations of insurgency, opens a new window into the subnational politics of civil war, and highlights the messy politics of state-building from below. Conflict outcomes, Dr Haim argues, often hinge not just on states, rebels, or ordinary civilians—but on the brokers in between.
Speaker biography:
Dr Dotan Haim is an Assistant Professor in Political Science at Florida State University. He studies conflict, policing, and social networks, with a focus on Southeast Asia, especially the Philippines. In his work, Dotan uses randomized field experiments, large-scale social network analysis, and inductive methods grounded in fieldwork to examine how insurgency and crime can hinge on the nature of the social ties between civilians, government security forces, and local politicians. His work is published in the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, and Science and has been supported by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) and Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), among others.
This event is co-hosted with the Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre.
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